by Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to sign an agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn, ending in a heated exchange between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Following Zelensky’s early departure, the White House announced that no agreement had been signed.
Previously, Zelensky had expressed optimism that this “preliminary” agreement could pave the way for further cooperation. However, he confirmed that Ukraine had yet to secure any security guarantees from the US—one of his key demands. Trump, for his part, argued that such a deal would allow American taxpayers to “recoup their money” from aid provided to Ukraine during the war, but insisted that Europe should take primary responsibility for Kyiv’s security.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv and Washington had finalized a draft of the agreement, which was released on Friday morning. The deal outlined the creation of an “investment fund” to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.
Conflicts Regarding Mineral Rights and Financial Conditions
It seems that the discord between Trump and Zelensky intensified due to particular aspects of the minerals agreement. Initially, the US proposed a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral assets, which Zelensky declined. Sources suggest that this demand was subsequently revoked.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, claiming on Tuesday that the US has given Ukraine roughly $300 billion to $350 billion in aid and that a minerals agreement could help recoup this expenditure. Conversely, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US support totals $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
A central sticking point for Zelensky has been the inclusion of explicit security guarantees from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that no such guarantees had been secured.
“Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,” Zelensky commented.
When questioned about possibly abandoning the agreement without security assurances, he replied: “I aim for a NATO pathway or something comparable. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will operate.”
Even though there are no direct security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security assurances to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not conclude the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus on security assurances and devised a way to incorporate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, on the other hand, minimized the necessity of direct US security guarantees, asserting that these obligations should now fall to Europe. He mentioned that the involvement of American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to give the US a concrete reason to keep backing Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for access to minerals, Ukraine would obtain the “right to continue fighting,” with the US continuing to provide military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.
When Will the Agreement Be Signed?
Trump initially mentioned that the agreement would be finalized at the White House meeting on Friday. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal affirmed that a definitive version of the deal was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was intended for signing.
Ultimately, no agreement was signed. Instead, the gathering turned into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. During the heated exchange, Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US support and cautioned him against “risking World War Three.”
“You have to finalize a deal, or we’re withdrawing,” Trump allegedly warned Zelensky. “You lack the leverage.”
Zelensky, in response, insisted that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and declaring: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
Currently, it is uncertain if or when the agreement will be executed.
Ukraine’s Rich Mineral Resources
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts substantial quantities of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it has considerable reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial for military applications, wind turbines, and electronic gadgets—although some experts question the precise extent of these reserves.
Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
Another obstacle to mineral extraction is the widespread presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that around 25% of Ukraine’s landmass is contaminated, particularly in the war-torn eastern regions.
Time is another concern. Even if the agreement is completed, it might be years before the extraction and export of these resources produce measurable economic gains.
“These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,” explained Mylovanov. “Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet addressed the reported particulars of the US-Ukraine agreement. Nonetheless, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is willing to “provide” mineral resources to American companies for cooperative ventures, including extraction in Russia’s “new territories”—alluding to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia “certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are prepared to welcome foreign collaborators for the development of these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he added.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the situation is still evolving: “We’ll see whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.”
